South African motorists could face a sharply divided fuel-price adjustment in August 2026, with petrol currently positioned for a decrease while diesel and illuminating paraffin move in the opposite direction.
Although lower petrol prices would offer some relief to private motorists, the developing diesel increase could place renewed pressure on transport operators, farmers, businesses and the wider supply chain.
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According to the latest unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), as reported by The South African, the projected adjustments are:
- Petrol 93: decrease of approximately 59 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: decrease of approximately 54 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% sulphur: increase of approximately 87 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% sulphur: increase of approximately 66 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of approximately 62 cents per litre
These figures are not yet final. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce the official August adjustment once the fuel-price review period has closed.
However, if the current projections hold, the result would create a noticeable divide between petrol and diesel users.
For a motorist filling a 50-litre petrol tank, the projected decrease would translate into a saving of approximately R29.50 for Petrol 93 or R27 for Petrol 95.
Diesel users would move in the opposite direction. A 50-litre purchase could cost approximately R43.50 more for 0.05% sulphur diesel or R33 more for 0.005% sulphur diesel, based on the developing wholesale adjustments.
The final amount charged for diesel at individual service stations may differ because South Africa regulates the wholesale diesel price, while the retail price can vary between suppliers.
A petrol decrease would be welcome news for households already under pressure from elevated transport and living costs.
However, the importance of diesel to the broader economy means that its projected increase cannot be viewed only as a problem for diesel-powered private vehicles.
Diesel is widely used by freight and delivery operators, agricultural businesses, construction companies, public transport providers and businesses operating generators or vehicle fleets.
This means a diesel increase can feed into operational and distribution costs even when petrol becomes cheaper.
For Northern KwaZulu-Natal, the effects could be particularly relevant across the agricultural, logistics, manufacturing and transport sectors. Businesses moving goods between Newcastle, Ladysmith, Dundee, Vryheid and surrounding cities remain heavily dependent on road transport.
Higher diesel costs do not automatically mean that food, transport or other consumer prices will immediately increase. However, they add another expense to supply chains already carrying labour, electricity, maintenance and financing costs.
The August split could therefore create an unusual outcome: motorists may pay slightly less to fill their petrol vehicles while businesses responsible for moving products and passengers face higher fuel expenses.
Furthermore, the projected 62-cent increase in illuminating paraffin adds another household concern.
Paraffin remains an important cooking, heating and lighting fuel for some lower-income households, particularly during winter. Unlike the petrol reduction, the developing paraffin increase would directly affect residents relying on the fuel for essential domestic use.
A 20-litre paraffin purchase would cost approximately R12.40 more if the projected adjustment is implemented in full.
Earlier in July, fuel-price data pointed towards considerably larger reductions across petrol and diesel. However, those favourable recoveries weakened as international petroleum prices climbed.
South Africa imports crude oil and refined petroleum products, leaving domestic fuel prices exposed to movements in international oil markets and the rand-dollar exchange rate.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources explains that South Africa’s monthly fuel-price adjustments are primarily influenced by international petroleum-product prices, importation costs and the average exchange rate during the review period.
International oil-market volatility has intensified amid renewed conflict involving Iran and disruption risks around key shipping routes. MyBroadband reported that the anticipated Petrol 95 reduction had fallen from R3.67 per litre in late June to approximately 54 cents by 22 July, while diesel moved from a substantial projected decrease into an under-recovery.
This demonstrates why mid-month fuel forecasts can change significantly before the official adjustment is announced.
The current data suggests that petrol users remain positioned for some relief in August, although the projected decreases could still strengthen or weaken before the review period closes.
Diesel and illuminating paraffin users, meanwhile, face the possibility of another increase unless international petroleum prices retreat or the rand strengthens sufficiently before the final calculation.
The official August fuel prices are expected to take effect on Wednesday, 5 August 2026.
Until the Department announces the final adjustment, the figures remain projections.
What is already clear, however, is that August is unlikely to deliver equal relief across the fuel market: petrol motorists may save at the pump, while diesel-dependent businesses, transport operators and paraffin-using households prepare for higher costs.
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