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South African life expectancy has suffered a substantial knock, with Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) pointing out that the country is noting a significant increase in deaths.
Stats SA explained that the population of SA was estimated to be 60,14 million at mid-year 2021, an increase of about 604 281 (1,01%) since mid-year 2020. However, the latest Mid-year population estimates, 2021 released by Stats SA, shows that the COVID-19 pandemic had impacted mortality and migration in the country since the start of the pandemic early in 2020.
“South Africa experienced both peaks of deaths in the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic within the 2021 Mid-year Population Estimates (MYPE) period between July 2020 and June 2021. This resulted in a significant increase in the crude death rate (CDR) from 8,7 deaths per 1 000 people in 2020 to 11,6 deaths per 1 000 people in 2021. The significant rise in deaths in 2021 (approximately 34%), meant a drop in the 2021 Life expectancy (LE) at birth for South Africa.”
Additionally, life expectancy at birth for males declined from 62,4 in 2020 to 59,3 in 2021 (3,1-annual drop) and from 68,4 in 2020 to 64,6 for females (3,8-annual drop).
While the life expectancy birth indicator is a significant health indicator, in this COVID-19 period, it should not be interpreted as a projection of an individual’s lifespan but should instead be used to shed light on the cumulative burden of a crisis compared to recent trends, highlights Stats SA. Furthermore, between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021, two waves of the pandemic swept across the country. By 11 June 2021, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) reported that the country had technically entered the country third wave.
Stats SA claims, “The second wave was driven by the beta variant of the COVID-19 virus while the third wave is driven by the delta variant, the most contagious version of the coronavirus to date. These waves resulted in significantly higher proportions of deaths in the country than would normally have occurred. As a result of this rise in deaths, life expectancy at birth declined significantly.”
During the early days of the epidemic, estimated COVID-19 deaths were hampered by definitional inconsistencies, logistical issues, and general aspects that came with attempting to count whilst also researching a relatively unknown epidemic with unclear testing, monitoring, and classification processes at times.
According to the stats company, what is certain is that the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the very core of how we interact in society and what we once knew as normal. “As new data becomes available over time, we will have a better sense of the full impact of the pandemic on the demography of the nation and the world.”
Other findings in Stats SA’s report include:
- Approximately 51,1% (approximately 30,75 million) of the population is female.
- The infant mortality rate for 2021 is estimated at 24,1 per 1 000 live births.
- The estimated overall HIV prevalence rate is approximately 13,7% among the South African population. The total number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) is estimated at approximately 8,2 million in 2021. For adults aged 15–49 years, an estimated 19,5% of the population is HIV positive.
With a population of approximately 1,30 million people (2,2%), the Northern Cape remains the province with the smallest share of the South African population. Gauteng still holds the largest percentage of the South African people, with approximately 15,81 million people (26,3%) living in this province. KwaZulu-Natal is the province with the second largest population, with an estimated 11,5 million people (19,1%) living in this province.
· Between 2009and 2021, fertility has declined from an average of 2,62 children per woman to 2,31 children in 2021
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