The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued its seasonal forecast, predicting soaring summer temperatures combined with heavier-than-average rainfall in key regions — conditions that could bring both relief to water reservoirs and the danger of widespread flooding.
Moreover, SAWS explained that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, rapid cooling recorded during the past month could signal the development of a weak La Niña event in the coming weeks.
“For South Africa, this translates into generally favourable rainfall conditions for the summer rainfall areas in the North-Eastern parts of the country, and as mentioned above, is expected to increase the likelihood of flooding during summer,” said SAWS.
Forecasts show that provinces such as North West, parts of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and sections of the Eastern Cape are expected to benefit from above-normal rainfall. Yet the weather service warned that greater rainfall brings significant dangers. “Measures such as establishing proper drainage systems, must be taken to safeguard against floods. Without proactive measures in anticipation of impending above average rainfall, we are likely to see drownings, injuries and hypothermia. Unfortunately for parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo Provinces, predictions indicate below average rainfall patterns which could exacerbate existing drought conditions in these areas. Farmers are encouraged to implement soil and water conservation measures, proper harvesting and storage techniques and proper drainage systems to mitigate these impacts,” stated SAWS.
In addition to rainfall, the seasonal outlook points to above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across much of South Africa.
The exception will be the south-western coastal regions, including areas of the Northern and Western Cape, where below-average temperatures are anticipated. SAWS noted that while cooler conditions are expected in these coastal areas, most of the country will face increased heat. Higher temperatures, the agency warned, could drive up cases of heat-related illnesses and encourage the faster spread of foodborne pathogens.
While many welcome summer as a break from the harsh winter months, SAWS has urged South Africans to remain vigilant. The agency highlighted that rising global temperatures are a clear reminder of the need for preventative action — from avoiding flood-prone areas with poor drainage to taking steps to stay safe during extreme heat.
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FAQs: SAWS summer forecast
According to SAWS, North West, parts of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and sections of the Eastern Cape are expected to experience above-average rainfall.
While rainfall will benefit water reservoirs and agriculture, it also increases the risk of flooding, drownings, injuries, and hypothermia, especially in poorly drained areas.
No. SAWS forecasts below-average rainfall for parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo, which may worsen existing drought conditions in those regions.
Most of the country is expected to face above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures, which could lead to heat-related illnesses and faster spread of foodborne diseases.
Yes, the south-western coastal areas, including parts of the Northern and Western Cape, are expected to experience below-average temperatures this summer.
