How ready are Newcastle and Amajuba Municipalities for natural disasters?

Newcastle has frequently faced the harsh realities of severe weather, with the devastating floods in December 2023 and February 2024, and the recent heavy snowfall that shut down numerous roads. Moreover, a recent heatwave has increased the risk of fires. These events bring to light an urgent issue: Are the Newcastle Municipality and Amajuba District Municipality sufficiently prepared to handle future natural disasters that might strike the area?

This vital question arises as the South African Weather Service (SAWS) announced the official commencement of the king-size testbed on 1 October 2024.

This initiative is set to enhance the work undertaken by the Weather and Climate Services for Africa (WISER) Early Warnings for Southern Africa (EWSA) project in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia, aiming to improve meteorological forecasting capabilities and disseminate crucial, potentially life-saving weather information to communities.

SAWS has explained that testbeds represent an effective method for assessing methodologies in real-life situations, allowing for measurable impacts in collaboration with end-users. Under the WISER programme, which is led by the UK Met Office and commissioned by the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the WISER EWSA international consortium has been engaged in the region since mid-2023.

Their goal is to co-produce innovative early warning alerts for thunderstorms, known as ‘nowcasts,’ that are accessible and beneficial to at-risk communities and those involved in disaster risk reduction. SAWS emphasised that early warnings regarding severe weather events, such as heavy rain and thunderstorms, are critical in enabling communities to prepare effectively, thereby saving lives.

According to SAWS, this initiative’s partners include weather offices and disaster risk reduction agencies from the three countries, as well as institutions like the University of Leeds in the UK, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Kulima Integrated Development Solutions, Tyrsky Consulting, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, and the World Weather Research Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The weather service highlighted that inclusivity is a significant aspect of the project, with SAWS stating that various community members work alongside researchers and forecasters to ensure that the solutions developed are tailored to their specific needs. This includes the involvement of individuals with disabilities and their representative organisations, helping to shape the best methods for communicating weather information effectively.

SAWS Chief Executive Officer, Mr Ishaam Abader, said, “South Africa must scale up its early warning systems. SAWS’s development of early warning systems is an important focus area. Our contribution to and partnership with WISER EWSA aligns with the international EW4All initiative. Early warning dissemination and communication becomes particularly important considering the complexities of South Africa’s 12 official languages.”

He added that SAWS is working with local partners but also as part of the WISER EWSA project to close the gap between disseminating accessible weather information and the country’s most rural areas.

“To this end, we are, among others, engaging with the International Telecommunication Union and locally with GSM operators. Our early warning system endeavours are supported by the Impact-based Severe Weather Warning System. This introduced a welcome shift from traditional weather prediction to include the potential impact on people’s lives and property of weather events. It assists decision-makers in the disaster response process as well as other sectors, such as aviation and maritime.”

Delving further into the matter, SAWS elaborated that early warnings and nowcasting can empower individuals to prepare for extreme weather and make informed decisions to safeguard themselves and their families. This is especially crucial for communities already vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Nowcasting allows weather forecasters to monitor the development and intensity of thunderstorms, providing timely warnings about their expected paths within a two-hour window while collaborating with various populations, including disadvantaged groups.

Prof Douglas Parker from the University of Leeds and Principal Investigator for the project added, “The king-size testbed that began on 1 October is an expansion of the original project plan. Initially, the project was intended to implement only two intensive testbeds of two weeks each over the project’s 30-month lifespan. However, after successfully completing the first testbed in January/February 2024 in Zambia, with satellite testbeds in Mozambique and South Africa, our communities requested an extended testbed to ensure they have early warning of thunderstorms throughout the rainy season. Our in-country partners were supportive, as this provides greater opportunities for testing meteorological and observational models, interpreting the information in a practical manner that is accessible, and determining the best ways to relay this information promptly to disaster risk reduction organisations and affected communities. The feedback we will receive from our user communities over this extended testbed will significantly enhance our procedures and help us learn how to make the processes sustainable beyond the project’s conclusion.”

Thus, the ‘king-size’ testbed was established, set to operate throughout the customary rainy seasons from October to April 2025. SAWS noted that the second intensive two-week-long testbed is scheduled for January/February 2025, with dedicated staff available 24 hours a day. Mozambique will take the lead during this intensive testbed, with South Africa and Zambia serving as satellite partners.

Both initiatives will involve real-time testing of forecasting and nowcasting, gathering community feedback on the accuracy and accessibility of the messages, thereby allowing for continuous improvement.

During a preparatory meeting for the testbed in Katlehong, Gauteng, in August 2024, SAWS representatives learned how unpredictable weather patterns affect residents. Two community representatives shared, “It might be cold in the morning, very hot later, and raining even later. It helps with our planning to know what the weather might be like. Also, when there is flooding, the kids are left stranded, or they go home without supervision. If we know there is a chance of flooding, we can prepare. We must also teach people not to throw things in the drains because the water has nowhere to flow, adding to the flooding risk.”

Furthermore, community representatives and disaster risk reduction organisations have also raised concerns about the real risk of cholera outbreaks during flooding, alongside other health hazards.

Nico Kroese, the forecasting lead on the project at SAWS, concluded, “If we think about 2023 being reported as the hottest year since the gathering of weather data, and we look at the kind of weather we’ve already seen this year – for example, last week’s extreme cold and snow in large parts of South Africa – we cannot doubt the relevance and necessity of early warning systems. It goes beyond just having the information. The dissemination of accessible and understandable information is a crucial aspect of disaster reduction. This is what the WISER EWSA project and its broader initiative, EW4All, aim to achieve. The king-size testbed over the next several months will provide us with invaluable insights into improving our information-gathering methods and determining how best to communicate potentially life-saving information to those in need. A highlight is that we are doing this collaboratively with our partners and colleagues in Zambia and Mozambique, sharing the benefits regionally.”

In light of this, Newcastillian News reached out to both the Newcastle Municipality and the Amajuba District Municipality to inquire about the preparedness of local officials should a natural disaster strike, particularly in regard to heatwaves posing fire risks and heavy rainfalls that could lead to further flooding in the coming months.

The Communications Unit of the Newcastle Municipality explained that it has implemented measures to ensure that its staff are fully trained for disasters, and proactive steps have already been initiated in anticipation of potential natural disasters.

Addressing the teams tasked with responding to natural disasters such as fire risks and flooding, the Municipality stated, “All firefighting and Disaster Management staff are trained to at least Fire Fighter 1, Hazmat Awareness, Fire Fighter 2, and Hazmat Operations, which are accredited training programs recognised by the International Fire Service Accreditation Congress (IFSAC). Shift leaders, supervisors, and higher-ranking officers have either a Higher Certificate, Diploma, or Higher Diploma in Fire Technology, accredited by the South African Emergency Services Institute (SAESI). Some staff members have pursued further education, obtaining degrees in Fire Technology or Disaster Management from institutions such as the Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) or the University of KwaZulu Natal (UKZN).”

Additionally, the Communications Unit highlighted that recognising the vital role firefighters play in disaster management, all fire staff are also trained in Level 3 First Aid or Basic Life Support and engage in further training through short courses accredited by IFSAC. “Recently, eight fire staff members completed a Rope Rescue 1 course, enabling them to perform rescues from heights or steep slopes,” the Communications Unit noted.

The Fire and Disaster Management Services have a comprehensive Disaster Management Plan, as well as winter and summer contingency plans, which guide them in effectively managing disasters.

Furthermore, the Newcastle Municipality boasts the following personnel structure:

• Newcastle Fire Station: 1 Divisional Commander: Fire Safety & Disaster, 1 Senior Station Officer: Fire Safety & Disaster
• 1 Divisional Commander: Fire Operations, 1 Station Officer: Fire Operations, 4 Leading Firefighters, and 18 Firefighters
• To meet the requirements outlined in SANS 10090:2003, Newcastle Fire Station also has one Chief Fire Officer and 20 Firefighters dedicated to fire operations.
• In terms of Disaster Management, the Newcastle Municipality’s IDP Review indicates that the government entity also employs a Disaster Management Head and 2 Disaster Management Practitioners.

In addition to implementing plans and contingency measures, Councillor Faizel Cassim from the Newcastle Municipality emphasised that proactive steps have been taken to mitigate flooding similar to that which occurred in December 2023 and February 2024. “The Municipality has widened rivers and outlets at rivers in town to minimise the impact of flooding. That is why, during the recent snowfalls, there was no flooding when the snow melted, and the rainfall that followed,” he stated.

Cllr Cassim further highlighted a significant issue requiring attention—stormwater drains. “The Newcastle Municipality has begun clearing stormwater drains, which pose a flooding risk if blocked. However, there is still work to be done to ensure none of the stormwater drains are obstructed, allowing water to flow freely and preventing town flooding,” he explained.

Despite the proactive measures taken by the Newcastle Municipality and ensuring staff readiness for potential natural disasters, Cllr Cassim noted the urgent need to finalise a shelter for those affected by floods.

While the Newcastle Municipality asserts its preparedness for future natural disasters, the Amajuba District Municipality has not provided any comment on this issue. This is despite the Amajuba District Municipality recently completing its Disaster Management Centre in March 2024, which is aimed at addressing disasters affecting not only Newcastle, Osizweni, and Madadeni, but also Utrecht and Dannhauser.

Newcastillian News has submitted an inquiry via email to the District Municipality’s communications unit, seeking clarity on the training and readiness of their disaster management teams. However, no response has been received thus far. This is despite numerous efforts to contact the District Municipality’s Communications Unit regarding the matter.

Reflecting on these developments, what are your thoughts on the preparedness of municipal officials for future impending natural disasters? Share your views in the comment section below.