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As the pandemic’s fourth wave hangs in the balance, will South Africans be subjected to a series of lockdown restrictions this festive season?
Whether we like it or not, Covid-19 infections are rising in South Africa, just weeks before the projected fourth wave in December, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).
The NICD said in a statement on Monday, 22 November 2021 that the 7-day moving average for new COVID-19 cases has increased. However, the majority of the incidents so far have occurred in Gauteng.
“We are monitoring these trends to see if these increases persist,” comments NICD Acting Executive Director Prof Adrian Puren. He states that while localised spikes in case counts (clusters) are not unexpected, it’s difficult to assess whether they signal the start of a broader resurgence.
According to the NICD, previous waves were driven to a large extent by the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, Beta in the second wave and Delta in the third wave.
“Genomic sequencing in South Africa has, to date, not yet detected the emergence of any new variants which are making up an increasing proportion of the sequences,” Puren adds.
There are some delays inherent in molecular sequencing due to the transport of samples and the time taken to process them. Regardless of potential new variants in the future, the NICD states that the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains unchanged, and individuals are encouraged to wear masks, practice hand hygiene, maintain social distancing, and gather in well-ventilated spaces.
According to the National Department of Health, 41% of South African adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, with 35% fully vaccinated.
“It is difficult to predict the magnitude and timing of a potential COVID-19 resurgence, however, we implore the unvaccinated to get the COVID-19 vaccine, especially the elderly and those with comorbidities,” stresses Head of the Division of Public Health Surveillance and Response, Dr Michelle Groome.
She furthermore adds that vaccination and prior infection provide good protection against developing severe disease, and while there might be an increase in future case numbers, the number of hospitalisations and deaths are expected to be less severe in comparison to previous resurgences.
“As the endemic endures, I would like to reassure the public that the NICD continues to acutely monitor trends in case numbers, positivity rates and hospitalisations,” assures Puren.
As of Monday evening, 22 November 2021, most new cases stem from Gauteng (77%), followed by KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape, each accounting for 5%, respectively. Limpopo and Mpumalanga accounted for 3%, respectively; Eastern Cape, Free State, North West and Northern Cape each accounted for 2% of the new cases.
According to the Department of Health in KwaZulu-Natal, the average number of cases registered in the previous seven days was 36 cases each day. This number can rise if people do not follow the safety precautions of getting their vaccinations.
As Newcastillians prepare for the holiday season, now is the time for everyone to do their part to ensure a much-needed holiday can be enjoyed without more restrictions.
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